Blog
Inside the expert panel
Model One vs 100 FantasyPros football experts.
Every qualified preseason panelist board we could verify, replayed against fifteen seasons of actual finishes. Pick a season and see who was closer.
713
boards
15
seasons
398–315
draft-board record
Each panelist is scored on his own preseason board. The FantasyPros consensus — the whole panel averaged — is graded on the competition page.
See the website-level record →The comparison
Pick a year.
Lower miss score wins.
Draft value
Every board is graded against Model One's draft ranks and the actual value-over-replacement finish in that board's own scoring format.
Model One went 28–5 in 2025
The whole field
Model One's edge against every board
LostWon
Source / analyst
−15.0%Even+15.0%
ResultJorge B. Edwards
FantasyPros · 76 players
-3.2%
Kevin Steele
FantasyPros · 224 players
-1.9%
Guilherme Gianni
FantasyPros · 223 players
-1.8%
Blake Fincher
FantasyPros · 214 players
-0.3%
Dave McKay
FantasyPros · 220 players
-0.3%
Adam Pelletier
FantasyPros · 225 players
+0.2%
Justin Cavegn
FantasyPros · 220 players
+0.7%
Tal Malachovsky
FantasyPros · 204 players
+0.7%
Greg Smith
FantasyPros · 279 players
+1.0%
Kyle August
FantasyPros · 149 players
+1.5%
Justin Lampkin
FantasyPros · 218 players
+1.7%
Nick Ercolano
FantasyPros · 172 players
+1.9%
Husein Shabazz
FantasyPros · 216 players
+2.2%
Dennis Esser
FantasyPros · 220 players
+2.2%
Chet Gresham
FantasyPros · 228 players
+2.3%
Scott Engel
FantasyPros · 165 players
+2.4%
KJ
FantasyPros · 272 players
+2.7%
Kyle Richardson
FantasyPros · 176 players
+2.9%
Daniel Mader
FantasyPros · 277 players
+3.0%
Jeff Paur
FantasyPros · 224 players
+3.1%
Craig Phillips
FantasyPros · 218 players
+3.3%
Huseyin Aksu
FantasyPros · 218 players
+3.6%
Mauricio Castillo
FantasyPros · 221 players
+3.8%
Jason Klabacha
FantasyPros · 221 players
+3.9%
Andrew Sears
FantasyPros · 221 players
+4.1%
Jacob Hubman
FantasyPros · 167 players
+4.7%
Brad Evans
FantasyPros · 189 players
+4.7%
Pierre Camus
FantasyPros · 199 players
+6.6%
Geoff Lambert
FantasyPros · 175 players
+7.2%
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
FantasyPros · 262 players
+7.3%
Joe Bond
FantasyPros · 338 players
+7.4%
Smitty
FantasyPros · 224 players
+8.4%
JMO
FantasyPros · 238 players
+15.0%
Each bar is Model One's percentage edge inside that source's own matched-player pool. Use it to compare direction and relative edge—not raw miss scores across differently sized boards.
The table
2025, line by line
Model OneThe field
| Source / analyst | Players | Model One | Their score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adam PelletierX FantasyPros | 225 | 42.872 | 42.968 | Won by 0.10 |
Andrew Sears FantasyPros | 221 | 42.040 | 43.824 | Won by 1.78 |
Blake FincherX FantasyPros | 214 | 42.219 | 42.090 | Lost by 0.13 |
Brad EvansX FantasyPros | 189 | 37.112 | 38.951 | Won by 1.84 |
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers FantasyPros | 262 | 47.075 | 50.777 | Won by 3.70 |
Chet Gresham FantasyPros | 228 | 43.079 | 44.091 | Won by 1.01 |
Craig PhillipsX FantasyPros | 218 | 42.481 | 43.939 | Won by 1.46 |
Daniel MaderX FantasyPros | 277 | 50.014 | 51.561 | Won by 1.55 |
Dave McKayX FantasyPros | 220 | 43.291 | 43.169 | Lost by 0.12 |
Dennis EsserX FantasyPros | 220 | 43.291 | 44.261 | Won by 0.97 |
Geoff LambertX FantasyPros | 175 | 34.629 | 37.318 | Won by 2.69 |
Greg SmithX FantasyPros | 279 | 48.972 | 49.478 | Won by 0.51 |
Guilherme GianniX FantasyPros | 223 | 42.936 | 42.178 | Lost by 0.76 |
Husein ShabazzX FantasyPros | 216 | 42.145 | 43.084 | Won by 0.94 |
Huseyin AksuX FantasyPros | 218 | 42.316 | 43.877 | Won by 1.56 |
JMOX FantasyPros | 238 | 42.363 | 49.844 | Won by 7.48 |
Jacob HubmanX FantasyPros | 167 | 33.973 | 35.634 | Won by 1.66 |
Jason Klabacha FantasyPros | 221 | 42.096 | 43.812 | Won by 1.72 |
Jeff PaurX FantasyPros | 224 | 43.599 | 44.981 | Won by 1.38 |
Joe BondX FantasyPros | 338 | 54.553 | 58.922 | Won by 4.37 |
Jorge B. EdwardsX FantasyPros | 76 | 14.851 | 14.385 | Lost by 0.47 |
Justin Cavegn FantasyPros | 220 | 43.291 | 43.572 | Won by 0.28 |
Justin Lampkin FantasyPros | 218 | 42.432 | 43.156 | Won by 0.72 |
KJ FantasyPros | 272 | 47.948 | 49.267 | Won by 1.32 |
Kevin SteeleX FantasyPros | 224 | 44.004 | 43.172 | Lost by 0.83 |
Kyle August FantasyPros | 149 | 31.537 | 32.015 | Won by 0.48 |
Kyle RichardsonX FantasyPros | 176 | 34.895 | 35.953 | Won by 1.06 |
Mauricio Castillo FantasyPros | 221 | 42.096 | 43.779 | Won by 1.68 |
Nick ErcolanoX FantasyPros | 172 | 35.800 | 36.504 | Won by 0.70 |
Pierre CamusX FantasyPros | 199 | 40.745 | 43.609 | Won by 2.86 |
Scott EngelX FantasyPros | 165 | 33.566 | 34.385 | Won by 0.82 |
Smitty FantasyPros | 224 | 42.897 | 46.825 | Won by 3.93 |
Tal MalachovskyX FantasyPros | 204 | 39.173 | 39.456 | Won by 0.28 |
Sleeper receipts
One for us. One for them.
Model One's standout sleeper
Amon-Ra St. Brown
2025 · vs Daniel Mader
The pick
#9
Other side
#271
Actual
#7
Nick Zylak's standout sleeper
Sam Darnold
2024 · vs Nick Zylak
The pick
#120
Other side
#380
Actual
#53
Experimental all-time leaderboard
Everybody, stacked up.
Lower is better. Board size is normalized, multiple boards are averaged within a season, and every season counts equally. No small-sample adjustment is applied.
RankSource / analystNormalized missSeasonsBoards
#215 seasons
Model OneScored on the FantasyPros consensus boards' pools — one deep board per season, present in all fifteen seasons — so the aggregate compares like against like; every individual matchup above is graded on that board's own shared pool.
Ball Ranks
Normalized miss18.18
15
15
#55 seasons
Justin Lampkin
FantasyPros
Normalized miss19.01
5
5
#77 seasons
Mauricio Castillo
FantasyPros
Normalized miss19.03
7
7
#96 seasons
Justin Cavegn
FantasyPros
Normalized miss19.06
6
6
#105 seasons
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
FantasyPros
Normalized miss19.08
5
5
#135 seasons
Jonathan Lynn
FantasyPros
Normalized miss19.19
5
5
#149 seasons
Jason Klabacha
FantasyPros
Normalized miss19.24
9
9
#176 seasons
Cat Vasquez
FantasyPros
Normalized miss19.46
6
6
#217 seasons
Michael Beller
FantasyPros
Normalized miss19.65
7
7
#2912 seasons
Chet Gresham
FantasyPros
Normalized miss20.49
12
12
#325 seasons
Scott Smith
FantasyPros
Normalized miss20.68
5
5
#456 seasons
Kyle August
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.13
6
6
#4610 seasons
Smitty
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.18
10
10
#5112 seasons
Andrew Sears
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.34
12
12
#548 seasons
KJ
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.50
8
8
#566 seasons
Emil Kadlec
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.57
6
6
#616 seasons
Nick Vertucci
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.74
6
6
#665 seasons
Robert Lange
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.92
5
5
#6913 seasons
Site Rankings
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.97
13
18
#735 seasons
Chris Meyers
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.00
5
5
#945 seasons
Staff Rankings
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.92
5
6
#1004 seasons
Test Account
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.85
4
5
Normalized miss is each board's weighted average rank error as a percentage of that board's full matched-player rank range. Only sources with at least two scored seasons appear; two-season entries are labeled as small samples.
Sources
Check every board.
Each link opens the exact raw FantasyPros feed response used here. One board per expert per season: the PPR board when the expert published one, otherwise standard. Boards under 80 players and boards published after opening kickoff are excluded.
2025
View all years
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
One consistent target
Every board, Model One, and the actual finish are ranked by value over a replacement-level starter (QB12/RB24/WR36/TE12/K12) in the board's own scoring format — the currency drafts are actually played in.Important players count more
Weight declines smoothly from 2× for the best actual finisher in each shared pool to 1× for the last.Opening-kickoff boards only
Every named panelist board carries a publish timestamp verified to predate that season's first game.* Rookies are removed before each pool is ranked. Players who never took the field that season have no finish to grade and drop from both sides equally. The consensus rows are FantasyPros' archived draft-year ECR served by their rankings feed.
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