Blog

The head-to-head record

Model Zero vs the competition.

Our deliberately simple baseline finished 6842 against the site-level draft boards in our archive — ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo, NFL.com, WalterFootball, the room's real-draft ADP, and the full FantasyPros consensus — across 15 seasons.

FantasyProsBall RanksWalterFootballFantasyFootballCalculator real-draft ADP
110
matchups
15
seasons
68–42
draft-board record
68 wins · 42 losses · every board time-stamped before kickoff

This is the broad view: one opponent per source in each season. Individual panelists get their own page.

See every individual expert →

The comparison

Pick a year.

Lower miss score wins.

Draft value
Every board is graded against Model Zero's draft ranks and the actual value-over-replacement finish in that board's own scoring format.
Model Zero went 91 in 2025
The whole field
Model Zero's edge against every board
LostWon
Organization
9.6%Even+9.6%
Result
FantasyPros consensus
FantasyPros · 273 players
-1.4%
Real-draft ADP
FantasyFootballCalculator · 170 players
+0.9%
CBS Sports
CBS Sports · 168 players
+5.7%
CBS Sports
CBS Sports · 167 players
+6.1%
CBS Sports
CBS Sports · 168 players
+6.7%
CBS Sports
CBS Sports · 166 players
+6.8%
CBS Sports
CBS Sports · 165 players
+6.8%
CBS Sports
CBS Sports · 167 players
+8.5%
CBS Sports
CBS Sports · 165 players
+9.1%
CBS Sports
CBS Sports · 164 players
+9.6%

Each bar is Model Zero's percentage edge inside that source's own matched-player pool. Use it to compare direction and relative edge—not raw miss scores across differently sized boards.

The table

2025, line by line

OrganizationPlayersModel ZeroTheir scoreResult
CBS Sports
CBS Sports
16633.95036.420Won by 2.47
CBS Sports
CBS Sports
16533.51035.964Won by 2.45
CBS Sports
CBS Sports
16835.95738.521Won by 2.56
CBS Sports
CBS Sports
16836.35038.530Won by 2.18
CBS Sports
CBS Sports
16734.17236.392Won by 2.22
CBS Sports
CBS Sports
16533.90137.293Won by 3.39
CBS Sports
CBS Sports
16734.37637.573Won by 3.20
CBS Sports
CBS Sports
16433.91737.525Won by 3.61
FantasyPros consensus
FantasyPros
27348.54347.888Lost by 0.66
Real-draft ADP
FantasyFootballCalculator
17036.82037.162Won by 0.34

Across every season

Best win, toughest loss, closest call.

Biggest Model Zero win
NFL.com
2018
Won by 4.92
Biggest loss
FantasyPros consensus · FantasyPros
2012
Lost by 7.18
Closest match
Real-draft ADP · FantasyFootballCalculator
2012
Won by 0.03

Sleeper receipts

One for us. One for them.

Model Zero's standout sleeper
Kalif Raymond
2022 · vs FantasyPros consensus
The pick
#131
Other side
#304
Actual
#128
FantasyPros consensus's standout sleeper
Sam Darnold
2024 · vs FantasyPros consensus
The pick
#156
Other side
#397
Actual
#53

Experimental all-time leaderboard

Everybody, stacked up.

Lower is better. Board size is normalized, multiple boards are averaged within a season, and every season counts equally. No small-sample adjustment is applied.

#115 seasons
FantasyPros consensusThe archived draft-year expert consensus, rebuilt from the full panel (about 200 experts in recent seasons). The one opponent with a winning record against us — averaging hundreds of experts is genuinely hard to beat, and blending that signal into the model is the next research lever.
FantasyPros
Normalized miss17.33
#215 seasons
Model ZeroScored on the FantasyPros consensus boards' pools — the one opponent present in all fifteen seasons — so the aggregate compares like against like; the shallower ADP and WalterFootball pools are graded in their own head-to-head rows.
Ball Ranks
Normalized miss18.49
#33 seasons
Yahoo
Yahoo
Normalized miss20.58
#410 seasons
ESPN
ESPN
Normalized miss20.98
#58 seasons
WalterFootballWalterFootball.com's rankings, published by the site's founder Walter Cherepinsky through the FantasyPros panel feed.
WalterFootball
Normalized miss21.39
#67 seasons
CBS Sports
CBS Sports
Normalized miss22.30
#75 seasons
NFL.com
NFL.com
Normalized miss22.61
#815 seasons
Real-draft ADPThe market itself: average draft position from FantasyFootballCalculator's public archive of real 12-team PPR drafts that summer.
FantasyFootballCalculator
Normalized miss22.86

Normalized miss is each board's weighted average rank error as a percentage of that board's full matched-player rank range. Only sources with at least two scored seasons appear; two-season entries are labeled as small samples.

Sources

Check every board.

Every matchup links back to its source: the FantasyPros rankings feed for the consensus and WalterFootball boards, and FantasyFootballCalculator's public archive for the real-draft ADP. Sites whose historical boards we have not yet recovered in a verifiably pre-kickoff form are absent, not exempt — the archive grows.

View all years
Draft value only
Every board is compared with Model Zero's draft ranking and the actual value-over-replacement finish for that scoring format.
Smooth importance
Weight falls continuously from 2× for the best actual finisher in each shared pool to 1× for the last.
Same eligibility
Rookies are removed, and a player with no actual season drops out of the pool for both sides equally.