Player outlook
The starting job is a distraction in Daniel Gafford's draft case
Gafford has spent years turning backup minutes into elite shooting and blocks. Dallas does not need to promote him; it only needs to preserve the 22 minutes that make the trick work.
Daniel Gafford has never needed the ceremony of a starting introduction. Give him one short, violent shift at the rim after another and the fantasy line tends to arrive anyway.
Model Zero projects 10.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, and 68.8% shooting in 22.2 minutes. That line ranks 75th per game despite no threes, limited assists, and poor free throws. Gafford turns a small role into two scarce strengths: blocks and field-goal percentage that comes on enough makes to matter.
The ranking is not a bet that Dereck Lively II disappears. It is a bet that Dallas can keep both centers useful.
The shooting survived; the blocks slipped
Gafford averaged 1.3 blocks in 21.7 minutes last season, 1.8 in 21.5 the year before, and 2.1 in 24.5 across Washington and Dallas in 2023–24. He shot at least 65.5% in each of those three seasons. The shooting held; the defensive rate did not.
His March run showed what happens when the workload rises. Gafford averaged 15.1 points and 9.2 rebounds in 23.5 minutes while shooting 71.1%. The blocks dipped during that stretch, which is another reason not to treat one month as a full projection. Model Zero keeps the role modest and lets the longer defensive history pull blocks back to 1.6.
Gafford does not require a 30-minute path to return value. His case rests on the blocks rebounding from 1.3 to 1.6 while the role stays in the low 20s.
Daniel Gafford's Blocks per game trend
Blocks per game by month, 25-26.
Full data
| Month | Blocks per game |
|---|---|
| Nov | 1.5 (14 games) |
| Dec | 1.4 (9 games) |
| Jan | 0.7 (10 games) |
| Feb | 1.7 (9 games) |
| Mar | 0.8 (11 games) |
| Apr | 2 (2 games) |
Lively's recovery offers an opening, not a promotion
Lively projects for 22.7 minutes, 7.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.7 blocks, but only 37 games. Gafford projects for 61. Dallas' own offseason review says Lively's foot recovery may delay his return and Gafford could start opening night.
Lively's absence would create an early opportunity, not a season-long guarantee. At 22 minutes, Gafford can sprint, challenge shots, and finish without needing a broader offensive game. A short opening-night bump should not be priced as 30 minutes for six months.
The same review listed Morez Johnson first at center while Lively recovers. The rookie is not a fantasy threat on Gafford's level, but his projected 21.2 minutes give Dallas another way to survive without turning Gafford into a full-time center.
Total value rewards the 61-game forecast
Gafford rises from 75th per game to 64th in Ball Ranks' totals projection. That is unusual for a center in a timeshare: the model expects enough appearances for his narrow strengths to accumulate, even without a 30-minute role.
The total rank also clarifies the Lively comparison. Lively sits nearby at No. 84 per game, but his 37-game forecast creates a much larger season-long problem. Gafford does not need to become Dallas' permanent starter to be the center from this rotation who helps more often.
Punt builds change the missing categories from flaws to a plan
Zero threes, 1.3 assists, and 69.2% free throws are serious limits on a balanced roster. In a punt-free-throws build, one of those limits disappears and Gafford's elite field-goal impact becomes easier to stack with another rim-running center.
The remaining obligation is perimeter volume. Managers who pair Gafford with another non-shooting big must buy threes, assists, and steals aggressively at guard and wing. That is a deliberate build, not a reason to move him down automatically.
Balanced teams should apply a stricter test: can three strong free-throw shooters absorb his attempts without losing the category? If not, the field-goal and block gains may simply move weaknesses around. Gafford is most useful when his two strengths finish a build rather than force a late redesign.
Morez Johnson makes the opening more complicated
Johnson ranks far below Gafford in 9-category value, but his projected 21.2 minutes matter more than the rank. Dallas can cover regular-season center minutes without forcing Gafford into a larger role.
Gafford's field-goal percentage is valuable because the attempts stay close to the rim. More minutes do not automatically improve the category mix if they also bring fatigue or lower-quality touches.
The rebound ceiling is also limited by three playable centers. A manager drafting Gafford for double-digit rebounds will be disappointed. The right purchase is six or seven rebounds plus high-impact blocks and shooting.
At 18 minutes, the magic trick stops working
Gafford projects for zero threes, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, and 69.2% free throws on 3.0 attempts. At 1.2 blocks, he becomes a two-category specialist whose No. 75 price is difficult to defend. If Dallas trims him below 20 minutes, the rebound total becomes ordinary.
The free-throw volume is manageable in balanced builds and becomes an advantage in punt-free-throws builds, but zero threes and 1.3 assists require guard production elsewhere.
His 61-game projection is useful but not durable. Managers should leave room for a second starting center rather than draft him as a set-and-forget anchor.
Twenty-two minutes is enough—and the price should say so
Take Gafford around pick 80 when blocks and field-goal percentage need a direct fix. Move him up in punt-free-throws builds; move him down when the roster is already short on threes and assists.
The timeshare is not a reason to fade him completely. It is the reason the price must stay attached to 22 minutes.
See Daniel Gafford's full player profile, or compare Dallas' centers on the 2026–27 fantasy basketball board.
Sources and data notes
- Ball Ranks 2026–27 Model Zero projection, 9-category per-game rankings, season history, and monthly splits: September 18, 2026 snapshot.
- Dallas Mavericks offseason roster review.