Player outlook
Deni Avdija's breakout has to survive Ja Morant
Portland no longer needs Avdija to control every possession. His test is whether the rebounds, strength, and rare forward playmaking can outlive the ball-dominant role that revealed them.
Deni Avdija finally got the ball often enough to show the whole game. Then Portland added Ja Morant, one of the league's most forceful answers to the question of who controls a possession.
The new projection is 21.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 threes, and 47.4% shooting. Avdija does not need to remain Portland's point forward on every possession. He needs enough creation to preserve the guard-like categories that made him special at forward.
Morant takes the ball, not necessarily the breakthrough
Avdija's 2025–26 season was a usage event. His assists jumped from 3.9 to 6.7 and his turnovers from 2.7 to 3.8. He scored 24.2 points after averaging 16.9 the year before. In December alone, he produced 24.6 points and 8.5 assists while turning it over 4.6 times.
Morant gives Portland another primary creator. NBA.com confirmed the trade in June. Compared with last season, Ball Ranks projects 3.1 fewer points, 1.3 fewer assists, and 0.6 fewer turnovers for Avdija. That shape fits the risk Morant creates without assuming every lost touch belongs to him.
That is a coherent exchange. Fewer touches lower his ceiling in assists, but easier touches can protect his field-goal percentage and reduce the empty possessions. Avdija shot 46.2% last season; the projection lifts him to 47.4% while bringing turnovers to 3.2.
Morant changes the shape of the job. He does not erase the rebounds, transition force, or secondary passing that made Avdija's breakout more than a possession count.
Deni Avdija's Assists per game trend
Assists per game by month, 25-26.
Full data
| Month | Assists per game |
|---|---|
| Oct | 4.2 (6 games) |
| Nov | 6.4 (14 games) |
| Dec | 8.5 (14 games) |
| Jan | 6 (10 games) |
| Feb | 6 (4 games) |
| Mar | 6.8 (13 games) |
| Apr | 7 (5 games) |
The rebounds are what make the pairing work
Avdija projects for 7.4 rebounds, a category Morant does not threaten. That production separates him from wings who need 25 points to return top-60 value. It also lets Portland use him as a transition starter after defensive rebounds instead of requiring a half-court isolation.
Morant projects for 7.5 assists and 3.5 turnovers in 29.3 minutes. Avdija can become the second-side playmaker: attack a tilted defense, find Donovan Clingan at the rim, or finish without seeing the opponent's best perimeter defender. Five assists from that role would still be scarce at his position.
The fit is not automatically clean. Morant is another weak three-point shooter, and Portland may use lineups with Clingan and Robert Williams III. Avdija's projected 1.8 threes must hold so the offense does not become too compressed. His preseason shot locations will say more than his raw attempt count.
Seventy games turn the same rank into a better season
Avdija ranks 60th per game and 47th in Ball Ranks' totals projection. The 13-place gain comes from 70 projected appearances, a major part of the case after a season in which his role and monthly production moved sharply.
That total-value edge is useful because Portland's crowded backcourt can create uneven nights. A manager can survive a 14-point, four-assist game more easily when Avdija keeps appearing, rebounding, and reaching the line. The projection is not asking every month to look like November or April. It is asking the complete line to remain available while the creators around him change.
The projection does not pay for April
Avdija finished last regular season with 28.2 points and 7.0 assists in five April games. He also averaged 13.0 points in four February games. The range explains both the excitement and the caution before Portland even added another creator.
The sharper draft case starts at 21 points, not 25. At that level, the 7.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists do the heavy lifting. Avdija ranks seventh in projected assists among forward-eligible players. His 0.9 steals are ordinary, while 79.2% on 7.3 free-throw attempts is a meaningful category input rather than a low-volume footnote. The clear tax is 3.2 turnovers.
This also changes the right team build. Avdija fits better with low-turnover guards and shot-blocking bigs. Pairing him with another high-turnover creator can force an early punt without providing elite steals or threes in return.
His free-throw volume deserves equal attention. A projected 79.2% sounds ordinary, but 7.3 attempts make it one of the loudest parts of his line. A small percentage change would move more fantasy value than an extra tenth of a steal. Managers should track the attempts as closely as the makes.
Two creators can still become one too many
The assist risk is bigger than Morant alone. Portland's roster also includes Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, and Shaedon Sharpe. If Avdija's assists fall below five, the projected rank becomes much harder to defend.
Morant's 35-game projection does create possible openings. His absences would reopen touches, but Lillard, Holiday, and Henderson keep that from being an automatic return to Avdija's old role. A 70-game projection still gives Avdija many chances to shift between secondary creator and primary initiator.
Discount the old role, not the player it revealed
Take Avdija near pick 60 if assists at forward matter more than steals or blocks. Pass if the roster already carries heavy turnovers and needs defensive stats.
The breakout does not require every 2025–26 touch to survive. It requires the rebounds, transition game, and secondary passing to prove they were skills rather than temporary responsibilities.
See Deni Avdija's full player profile, or compare Portland's new hierarchy on the 2026–27 fantasy basketball board.
Sources and data notes
- Ball Ranks 2026–27 Model Zero projection, 9-category per-game rankings, season history, and monthly splits: September 18, 2026 snapshot.
- NBA.com report on Portland acquiring Ja Morant.
- Portland's 2026–27 schedule release and current guard group.