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Ja Morant belongs on punt-turnover rosters with an open injured-reserve spot

Morant's assists, steals, and free throws still play like a star's, but suspensions, a shoulder surgery, and an elbow sprain have turned his availability into the whole draft decision. The right build turns that risk into a discount instead of a trap.

October 9, 2026· Ball Ranks
Ja Morant
G · POR
Ja Morant
Our rank
#78

The last time Ja Morant played 60 games in a season, he was 23 and on his way to a second straight All-Star selection. The three seasons since produced 9, 50, and 20 appearances. Memphis moved on at the end of June, sending him to Portland for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray.

Ball Ranks' two boards read that history in opposite directions. Model Zero's line of 21.2 points, 7.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and 85.4% at the line ranks 78th per game. Ball Ranks' totals board, which has to live with a 35-game projection, puts him 246th. No player inside the per-game top 150 carries a wider split; Joel Embiid's 148-place gap is the next closest.

That gap is the draft decision. Morant is worth a pick only on a roster designed to collect the per-game version and absorb everything else.

The star is still in the box score when he plays

Morant was Rookie of the Year in 2019–20, then Most Improved Player, an All-Star, and second-team All-NBA in 2021–22, when he averaged 27.4 points on 49.3% shooting. The explosive peak was interrupted, not replaced. In the nine games he played after his 2023–24 suspension, he averaged 25.1 points and 8.1 assists. Last season, in 20 games and only 28.4 minutes, he still produced 8.1 assists.

The skill that changed most is one nobody drafted him for. His free-throw percentage has climbed three straight seasons, from 74.8% in 2022–23 to 89.7% last year. Model Zero keeps it at 85.4% on 6.1 attempts, and only 13 players on the board get more value from the line. Add 7.5 assists, tenth-most in the projection pool, plus 1.1 steals, and the per-game rank stands on three real pillars.

The weakness is the field-goal line. Morant shot 35.9% across his first 12 games last season, a stretch that included a one-game team suspension after a postgame dispute with coach Tuomas Iisalo. Over his final eight games, in December and January, he shot 48.8% and averaged 8.8 assists. Model Zero lands between the two at 43.9%.

His absences came from three different places

Morant played 79 of Memphis's 246 regular-season games over the last three seasons. Calling that "injury-prone" flattens three separate problems that deserve different prices.

The first is discipline. Twenty-six of the 167 missed games were suspensions: 25 to start 2023–24 and one last November. They count against him, but they say nothing about his body.

The second is structural. A torn labrum in his right shoulder required season-ending surgery nine games into his return in 2023–24. He returned to play 50 games in 2024–25.

The third is the newest and most relevant: soft-tissue and joint trouble in a game built on burst. Last season brought a Grade 1 right calf strain in November, then a left-elbow UCL sprain on January 21. Memphis shut him down in March after a platelet-rich plasma injection and said it expected a full recovery before 2026–27.

Model Zero's 35 games sit well below the 50 he managed two years ago and well above the other two seasons. That number decides the format. In a 12-team league with 13-man rosters, 156 players are rostered; 246th in totals means Morant falls below that line in roto or games-capped leagues. In head-to-head leagues with injured-reserve spots, the per-game rank becomes the relevant one, because his empty weeks can be parked while a replacement plays.

Punting turnovers erases the line's biggest cost

Morant projects for 3.5 turnovers, fifth-most on the board behind Trae Young, Luka Dončić, Josh Giddey, and Cade Cunningham. In a standard nine-category build, that cost cancels nearly all the value of his assists.

Re-score the same board without turnovers and he climbs from 78th to 45th, between Dyson Daniels and Brandon Miller. No player who lands in that build's top 60 gains more ground. Remove field-goal percentage as well and he reaches 25th. That is the build he was made for: assists, steals, and free throws stay, and the two categories that drag him disappear.

The opposite build is a trap. Without free throws he falls to 151st, because the line is one of his three real strengths. Managers starting with punt-FT% centers should look elsewhere for guard assists.

Four point guards will split Portland's ball

Portland's backcourt is crowded in a way Memphis never was. Damian Lillard is back after missing all of 2025–26 with a torn Achilles, and new coach Micah Nori has conceded that starting him beside Morant costs defense, with Jrue Holiday the alternative. Scoot Henderson is still on the roster, and general manager Joe Cronin has acknowledged the guard-heavy roster.

Model Zero already prices the crowd. Morant gets 29.3 minutes, with Lillard at 28.0, Henderson at 27.0, and Holiday at 23.7. None of those three projects for more than 4.8 assists. The playmaker who matters most is a forward: Deni Avdija averaged 6.7 assists for Portland last season and still projects for 5.4, with 3.2 turnovers.

The depth cuts both ways. Portland can survive Morant's absences without forcing him back early, which protects the per-game line. It also gives Nori four ways to shorten his minutes when the shot is off, which threatens the per-game line.

The per-game rank also needs the jumper to return

The argument so far treats 78th per game as safe whenever Morant is active. Last season says otherwise. His 20 games, on 41.0% shooting in 28.4 minutes, ranked 126th per game. That was the downside without a single missed game factored in.

Model Zero expects better shooting and a slightly bigger role. If Portland's four-guard rotation pushes him toward 26 minutes and the field-goal percentage stays in the low 40s, the per-game cushion that justifies an injured-reserve stash disappears. Preseason minutes, more than preseason highlights, will tell managers which version arrived.

Draft him for the weeks he plays

In a 12-team head-to-head league with an open injured-reserve spot, take Morant in the seventh round; move him up to the sixth if you are already punting turnovers. In roto, games-capped, or no-IR leagues, let someone else pay; he belongs in the final rounds.

The talent still produces a top-50 line in the right build. The calendar decides whether you ever get to use it.

See Ja Morant's full player profile, or compare Portland's crowded backcourt on the 2026–27 fantasy basketball board.

Sources and data notes