Player outlook
Zion Williamson is a punt-build cornerstone hiding at No. 90
Williamson's field-goal percentage is one of the most valuable single categories in the draft, and his two holes are the two categories punters already ignore. The real questions are how many games he plays and whether New Orleans' push for a jumper changes the player.
Zion Williamson made one three-pointer in 62 games last season. New Orleans opened training camp talking about his jumper anyway, with executive Joe Dumars asking him to become a "more consistent and willing jump shooter".
Fantasy managers should hope the conversation stays theoretical. Williamson's value lives at the two ends of the shooting chart: 58.7% from the field on 14.3 attempts, and 70.7% at the line on 7.6. Model Zero projects 0.0 threes. Rank 90 is what happens when one elite category and two costly ones are added together, and almost no roster should draft him from that sum.
Fifty-nine percent on real volume outweighs his 22 points
Among players projected for at least 12 shots, only Giannis Antetokounmpo shoots a higher percentage than Williamson. On the Ball Ranks board, only Antetokounmpo, Jalen Duren, and Jarrett Allen get more from field-goal percentage, and the other two take far fewer shots. Williamson's efficiency is worth more to his rank than his 22.0 points.
Last season sharpened the weapon. He shot 60.0% across 62 games, and the curve rose as the year went on: 55.4% in 19 games through December, then 62.2% in 43 games from January on, including 67.7% across 14 March games.
Zion Williamson's Field goal percentage trend
Field goal percentage by month, 25-26.
Full data
| Month | Field goal percentage |
|---|---|
| Oct | 48.4% (4 games) |
| Nov | 53.1% (6 games) |
| Dec | 60.7% (9 games) |
| Jan | 61.7% (16 games) |
| Feb | 59.6% (10 games) |
| Mar | 67.7% (14 games) |
| Apr | 48.3% (3 games) |
The later version also took fewer free throws (6.7 a game, down from 9.4) and turned it over less (1.8, down from 2.6). The rest of the line is quietly broad for a forward: 6.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.1 steals. Model Zero settles at 58.7%, a step back from last season rather than a bet on the March peak.
Rank 90 is the one number not to draft from
Williamson projects for the sixth-most free-throw attempts on the board, and only six players lose more value at the line. Zero threes is a second hole. A balanced build pays for both before he contributes anything. A punt build pays for neither.
Re-score the same board without those categories and the picture changes:
| Build | Per-game rank | Totals rank |
|---|---|---|
| All nine categories | 90 | 140 |
| Punt FT% | 31 | 73 |
| Punt threes | 45 | 90 |
| Punt FT% and threes | 18 | 35 |
| Punt FG% | 216 | 274 |
Punting free throws alone puts him 31st, between Alex Sarr and Cade Cunningham. Punting threes as well puts him 18th, between Jalen Johnson and Domantas Sabonis. The bottom row matters too: a manager who has punted field-goal percentage has no reason to draft him at all.
His last two hamstring strains both arrived in November
Williamson has played 276 of New Orleans' 554 regular-season games since the 2019 draft, and ESPN counts 278 missed games, including the entire 2021–22 season. The timing of the absences matters more for fantasy than the total.
The last two seasons started the same way. In November 2024, a left hamstring strain sent him out indefinitely, and he finished with 30 games. Last November, with New Orleans still winless, he was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of the same hamstring. He played 19 of the team's first 35 games, then 40 of 41 from January through March.
That shape is kinder to head-to-head managers than to roto managers. A November absence costs a few regular-season matchups; it does not touch the March weeks when fantasy playoffs are decided, and he played 14 of 15 games last March. Roto counts every missed game the same, which is why his totals rank sits 50 places below the per-game rank at 140.
Model Zero projects 52 games, ten fewer than last season and well above the 30 he managed the year before. The Pelicans listed him at 277 pounds for camp, down from the 284 that had appeared on the roster for seven seasons. That is a reason to pay attention, not a reason to project 70 games.
New Orleans wants a jumper his fantasy line does not need
New coach Jamahl Mosley, hired in May, wants Williamson to expand his game and make teammates better. Dumars wants him to punish defenses that collapse into the paint. The spacing around him already exists: Trey Murphy III projects for 3.1 threes, Jordan Poole for 2.7, and Saddiq Bey for 2.0.
The fantasy risk is simple. Every jumper that replaces a rim attempt pulls the field-goal percentage toward the league. At 14.3 attempts, a drop to 55% would push his balanced rank to roughly 123rd. Punt builds are better insulated: with free throws and threes punted, he would still rank about 26th at 55%. The build that suits him best is also the one least exposed to New Orleans' offseason experiment.
Derik Queen may be the smarter New Orleans big for most rosters
The case against drafting Williamson as a cornerstone sits next to him in the frontcourt. Derik Queen played 81 games as a rookie and projects for 72, with 12.5 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.1 steals, a block, and 79.4% free throws. He ranks 94th per game, four spots behind Williamson, and 58th in totals.
The totals gap survives even in Williamson's best build. With free throws and threes punted, Queen ranks 29th in totals and Williamson 35th. Williamson's clear edge exists only per game, where the same punt puts him 18th and Queen 55th. Roto managers who want a New Orleans big should usually take the one who shows up.
Queen's 2.4 turnovers and 47.8% shooting keep him from being a perfect substitute. He does not provide the category-winning efficiency that makes a punt-FT% build work. He provides the games.
Draft the build, then the player
In a 12-team head-to-head league, take Williamson in the third round for a punt-FT% build, and late in the second only if you are ignoring threes too. On a balanced roster he is an eighth-round pick, and Queen at the same price is the safer choice. In roto, take Queen first. In punt FG%, leave him on the board entirely.
He is the rare player whose rank is not a price. It is a question about your roster.
See Zion Williamson's full player profile, or compare New Orleans' frontcourt on the 2026–27 fantasy basketball board.
Sources and data notes
- Ball Ranks 2026–27 Model Zero projection, 9-category per-game and totals rankings, season history, and monthly splits: October 7, 2026 snapshot.
- ESPN on Williamson entering his eighth season.
- ESPN on Williamson's November 2024 hamstring strain.
- FOX 8 New Orleans on Williamson's November 2025 hamstring strain.
- ESPN on New Orleans hiring Jamahl Mosley.