Blog

Ranking benchmark

Model One vs 100 FantasyPros football experts

Model One finished 415–266 against 681 expert analyst boards across thirteen NFL seasons, comparing players within their positions. Explore each matchup and its sources.

August 23, 2026· Ball Ranks
Dave RichardSean KoernerBall RanksJamey EisenbergJeff RatcliffePat FitzmauriceJohn Halpin
681
boards
13
seasons
415–266
draft-board record

Each panelist is scored on his own preseason board. The FantasyPros consensus — the whole panel averaged — is graded on the competition page.

See the website-level record →

The comparison

Pick a year.

Within-position rank error (%). Lower wins.

Within-position accuracy
Players are compared only with others at their position, using actual season fantasy points in the board’s scoring format. Each position contributes equally to the percentage error.
Model One went 21–12 in 2025
The whole field
Model One's edge against every board
LostWon
Source / analyst
−15.6%Even+15.6%
Result
FantasyPros · 261 players
-7.2%
Jeff Paur
FantasyPros · 260 players
-6.3%
Kyle August
FantasyPros · 184 players
-4.8%
Kevin Steele
FantasyPros · 260 players
-4.5%
Dave McKay
FantasyPros · 257 players
-4.3%
FantasyPros · 260 players
-3.7%
FantasyPros · 257 players
-3.4%
FantasyPros · 257 players
-2.4%
FantasyPros · 250 players
-1.1%
FantasyPros · 252 players
-0.8%
FantasyPros · 111 players
-0.8%
Nick Ercolano
FantasyPros · 172 players
-0.5%
KJ
FantasyPros · 309 players
+1.1%
FantasyPros · 200 players
+2.1%
FantasyPros · 339 players
+2.2%
Huseyin Aksu
FantasyPros · 254 players
+2.4%
FantasyPros · 299 players
+2.7%
FantasyPros · 255 players
+3.1%
FantasyPros · 266 players
+3.7%
FantasyPros · 255 players
+3.8%
Andrew Sears
FantasyPros · 257 players
+3.8%
FantasyPros · 257 players
+3.8%
FantasyPros · 257 players
+3.8%
FantasyPros · 240 players
+4.3%
FantasyPros · 212 players
+4.5%
Brad Evans
FantasyPros · 225 players
+4.6%
FantasyPros · 261 players
+5.3%
FantasyPros · 199 players
+5.5%
FantasyPros · 175 players
+5.7%
Jacob Hubman
FantasyPros · 203 players
+7.3%
FantasyPros · 313 players
+9.8%
FantasyPros · 316 players
+10.9%
FantasyPros · 272 players
+15.6%

Each bar is Model One's percentage edge inside that source's own matched-player pool. Use it to compare direction and relative edge—not raw miss scores across differently sized boards.

The table

2025, line by line

Source / analystPlayersModel OneTheir scoreResult
FantasyPros
26122.160%20.677%Lost by 1.48
Andrew Sears
FantasyPros
25723.411%24.339%Won by 0.93
FantasyPros
25024.241%23.981%Lost by 0.26
Brad EvansX
FantasyPros
22523.221%24.335%Won by 1.11
29921.015%21.601%Won by 0.59
FantasyPros
26622.163%23.015%Won by 0.85
FantasyPros
25524.186%24.955%Won by 0.77
FantasyPros
31320.494%22.721%Won by 2.23
Dave McKayX
FantasyPros
25724.022%23.022%Lost by 1.00
FantasyPros
25723.058%22.295%Lost by 0.76
FantasyPros
17522.601%23.976%Won by 1.38
FantasyPros
31620.269%22.739%Won by 2.47
26023.733%22.894%Lost by 0.84
FantasyPros
25223.464%23.271%Lost by 0.19
Huseyin AksuX
FantasyPros
25424.090%24.692%Won by 0.60
FantasyPros
27223.059%27.323%Won by 4.26
Jacob HubmanX
FantasyPros
20324.666%26.620%Won by 1.95
FantasyPros
25723.286%24.211%Won by 0.92
Jeff PaurX
FantasyPros
26022.995%21.623%Lost by 1.37
FantasyPros
33916.803%17.189%Won by 0.39
11124.475%24.283%Lost by 0.19
FantasyPros
25724.022%23.471%Lost by 0.55
FantasyPros
25523.662%24.583%Won by 0.92
KJ
FantasyPros
30921.824%22.063%Won by 0.24
Kevin SteeleX
FantasyPros
26023.340%22.334%Lost by 1.01
Kyle August
FantasyPros
18425.154%24.012%Lost by 1.14
FantasyPros
21224.897%26.070%Won by 1.17
25723.286%24.211%Won by 0.92
Nick ErcolanoX
FantasyPros
17222.717%22.597%Lost by 0.12
FantasyPros
19923.536%24.898%Won by 1.36
FantasyPros
20023.138%23.626%Won by 0.49
FantasyPros
26123.266%24.576%Won by 1.31
FantasyPros
24023.209%24.247%Won by 1.04

Across every season

Best win, toughest loss, closest call.

Biggest Model One win
Kevin Steele · FantasyProsX
2016
Won by 8.04
Biggest loss
Lost by 6.50
Closest match
Lost by 0.00

Sleeper receipts

One for us. One for them.

Model One's standout sleeper
Greg Joseph (K)
2019 · vs Kyle August
The pick
#10
Other side
#1
Actual
#10
Kevin Hanson's standout sleeper
DST:CHI (DST)
2013 · vs Kevin Hanson
The pick
#3
Other side
#1
Actual
#3

Experimental all-time leaderboard

Everybody, stacked up.

Lower is better. Board size is normalized, multiple boards are averaged within a season, and every season counts equally. No small-sample adjustment is applied.

#15 seasons
Normalized miss21.32
#26 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.82
#35 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.91
#45 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss21.96
#57 seasons
Normalized miss22.08
#65 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.22
#76 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.30
#85 seasons
Normalized miss22.31
#95 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.32
#1011 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.39
#116 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.50
#126 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.61
#137 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.74
#148 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.77
#159 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.80
#166 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.81
#177 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.82
#186 seasons
Normalized miss22.85
#196 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.86
#206 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.88
#215 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.89
#227 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.91
#237 seasons
Braxton RoamX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.92
#248 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.93
#255 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.98
#267 seasons
Walter CherepinskyX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss22.99
#276 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.01
#285 seasons
Raymond SummerlinX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.03
#299 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.04
#307 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.09
#317 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.18
#325 seasons
Normalized miss23.22
#338 seasons
KJ
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.28
#3411 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.35
#358 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.36
#367 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.36
#376 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.39
#3812 seasons
Dave McKayX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.39
#396 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.40
#407 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.43
#416 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.44
#4213 seasons
Model OneAverage within-position error across the displayed matchup pools, with each season weighted equally.
Ball Ranks
Normalized miss23.46
#437 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.55
#449 seasons
Nick ErcolanoX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.55
#455 seasons
Nick RaducanuX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.58
#4610 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.63
#4711 seasons
Scott WhitfieldX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.68
#486 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.71
#4910 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.71
#505 seasons
Patrick ThormanX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.72
#517 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.74
#529 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.79
#539 seasons
Jeff PaurX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.79
#549 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.85
#555 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.88
#566 seasons
Brendan DonahueX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss23.89
#577 seasons
Wolf of Roto StreetX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.15
#585 seasons
Joseph DolanX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.18
#595 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.23
#605 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.26
#614 seasons
Brett TalleyX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.30
#625 seasons
Scott Smith
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.33
#636 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.35
#645 seasons
Chris Meyers
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.43
#658 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.48
#668 seasons
Jacob HubmanX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.49
#676 seasons
Emil Kadlec
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.50
#685 seasons
Robert Lange
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.59
#6912 seasons
Andrew Sears
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.60
#705 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.62
#7112 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.62
#725 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.63
#736 seasons
James HatfieldX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.63
#7411 seasons
Huseyin AksuX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.66
#755 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.72
#767 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.74
#776 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.84
#786 seasons
Kyle August
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.85
#794 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.86
#806 seasons
Jason SablichX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.94
#816 seasons
Nick Vertucci
FantasyPros
Normalized miss24.96
#826 seasons
Normalized miss24.97
#836 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.04
#845 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.08
#859 seasons
Zach GreubelX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.13
#865 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.19
#876 seasons
Tozzi BrothersX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.22
#886 seasons
Derek LoflandX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.39
#896 seasons
Ben StandigX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.45
#905 seasons
Normalized miss25.50
#917 seasons
Kevin SteeleX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.54
#927 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.56
#935 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.66
#945 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss25.93
#9512 seasons
Site Rankings
FantasyPros
Normalized miss26.09
#966 seasons
Brent NamejkoX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss26.10
#9711 seasons
Brad EvansX
FantasyPros
Normalized miss26.62
#984 seasons
Test Account
FantasyPros
Normalized miss26.70
#995 seasons
Staff Rankings
FantasyPros
Normalized miss26.79
#1004 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss27.64
#1015 seasons
FantasyPros
Normalized miss29.35

Each position’s weighted rank error is divided by its matched rank range, then positions are averaged equally. The model uses all displayed matchup pools; each opponent uses its own pools. Only sources with at least two scored seasons appear; two-season entries are labeled as small samples.

Sources

Check every board.

Each link opens the exact raw FantasyPros feed response used here. One board per expert per season: PPR first, then standard, then half-PPR when the preferred formats are unavailable. Boards under 80 players and boards published after opening kickoff are excluded.

View all years

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

One consistent target
Actual finishes come from season fantasy points within each position, scored in the board's format. Cross-position placement does not affect this comparison.
Important players count more
Weight declines smoothly from 2× for the best actual finisher within each position to 1× for the last.
Opening-kickoff boards only
Every named panelist board carries a publish timestamp verified to predate that season's first game.

* Rookies are removed before each pool is ranked. Players who never took the field that season have no finish to grade and drop from both sides equally. The consensus rows are FantasyPros' archived draft-year experts' consensus ranking served by their rankings feed.

Zoom back out

How did Model One do against the ranking sites?

Model One vs the competition →