Davante Adams is being drafted like 14 touchdowns are repeatable.

Davante Adams caught 60 passes for 789 yards in 2025 and still scored 14 touchdowns. That is one touchdown for every 4.3 receptions, an extraordinary rate that preserved his fantasy season while almost every volume measure moved down.

The draft-room argument is straightforward. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay create premium scoring chances, and Adams has turned those chances into touchdowns for more than a decade. But he is 33, Puka Nacua commands targets, and last year's 222.9 PPR points depended on a rate no projection should treat as ordinary.

Ball Ranks has Adams 45th overall and WR22 with 183.3 projected points. His 41.9 ADP is only three spots earlier, yet we would rather let someone else buy the full touchdown encore.

Davante Adams's ranking trend

Lower rank is better. The final point is Ball Ranks' current projection.

The multi-year line is moving in one direction

Adams's last four PPR totals are 335.5, 265.4, 241.3, and 222.9. His receiving yardage fell from 1,516 in 2022 to 1,144, then 1,063, then 789. Targets moved from 180 to 175 to 141 to 114.

Context explains pieces of that decline. He changed quarterbacks and teams, played 14 games in each of the last two seasons, and joined a Rams offense with Nacua already established. It would be lazy to call every lost target an age effect.

It would be equally careless to ignore the trend. Adams played 71.4% of the Rams' offensive snaps last year and averaged 8.1 targets in his 14 games. That remained a useful role, but it was far from the 10-plus targets per game that once made him a first-round fantasy receiver.

The touchdowns covered the gap. He scored six in his first seven games and eight in his last seven, keeping his fantasy halves nearly identical even as targets fell from 63 to 51. That consistency looks reassuring on a points graph. Underneath it, volume was still slipping.

Stafford chemistry is a legitimate reason for optimism

Adams and Stafford did not practice together in the 2025 training camp because Stafford was managing a back injury. This summer has been different. The Rams reported that the pair have used camp to sharpen timing they had to develop during last season, including a tightly covered touchdown connection in practice.

That matters most near the goal line. Adams does not need to regain 180 targets to remain useful if Stafford trusts him on isolated routes in scoring range. His release work and body control have sustained touchdown production through several offensive environments.

The Rams have also treated his occasional camp absences as scheduled rest, not a current injury. Sean McVay confirmed that directly after Adams sat out the first padded practice (Rams.com). Age management is expected; a new medical concern would be different.

The market is pricing the name and the role fairly

An ADP of 41.9 makes Adams an early fourth-round pick in many drafts. Our board would wait until 45, a small gap that says “slightly expensive,” not “avoid.”

His format rankings also stay in a fairly tight band: WR22 in PPR, with overall placement in the low 40s in half-PPR and high 30s in standard. Touchdown value travels well across scoring systems. The lower catch count hurts less when receptions are not worth a full point.

The Rams' passing schedule grades near league average in our opponent-based calculation, and their bye is Week 11. Neither is a reason to move Adams materially. This selection turns on volume, health, and whether a great touchdown scorer can again outrun a declining target count.

Where our projection could miss

Model One may be applying too much caution to a player whose specific skill remains perfectly matched to his quarterback. Adams did not merely stumble into 14 scores; he has five career seasons with at least 12 receiving touchdowns. If Stafford remains healthy and the Rams return to the red zone often, double-digit scores are a reasonable outcome.

The other side is harsher. A 14-game season with 114 targets already requires touchdown efficiency to reach WR2 value. If the touchdowns fall toward eight and the target trend continues, 183.3 projected points may be generous rather than conservative.

Adams's age does not guarantee a cliff. It does reduce the margin for paying ahead of projection. Drafters should want a discount on a 33-year-old receiver with declining volume, not pay as though the scoring peak is the stable part.

The roster-building implication is simple: Adams works better as a second receiver than as the entire foundation of a passing group. Pairing him with a high-target option lets managers benefit from his scoring weeks without needing 17 games of vintage volume.

That balance is worth preserving at this price.

The verdict

We would take Adams around pick 45 as a second or third receiver, especially in standard scoring. At his 41.9 ADP, the price is acceptable but not attractive. Let the room pay for 14 touchdowns; draft him when the cost reflects ten.

See Adams's live projection and history on his player profile, or compare him on the complete 2026 board.

Sources and data notes

• Ball Ranks board, season history, weekly splits, and schedule calculation: August 29, 2026 snapshot.
• Los Angeles Rams on Stafford–Adams rapport: their 2026 camp work and 2025 touchdown context.
• Los Angeles Rams camp observations: confirmation that Adams's camp absence was scheduled rest.