David Montgomery finally escaped the timeshare. The price already knows.

David Montgomery spent 2025 losing a tug-of-war he was never going to win. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the best backs in football, and as Detroit leaned into him, Montgomery's share of the backfield shrank by the week: 104 carries across his first nine games, 54 across his final eight.

He finished with 716 rushing yards, eight touchdowns, and 166.9 PPR points — respectable totals earned mostly before Halloween. In March, one day after publicly denying he wanted out, Detroit traded him to Houston for offensive lineman Juice Scruggs and draft picks. The Texans did not acquire him to split anything: he enters 2026 as their unambiguous lead back.

Ball Ranks projects 143.8 PPR points, ranking him 63rd overall and RB25. His ADP of 58.2 is five picks richer. The market is paying for the role. Our board wants proof the second-half version of Montgomery was a usage problem, not an age problem.

The 2025 fade was about carries, not yards per carry

Montgomery's first nine games produced 11.7 PPR points a game on roughly 11.5 carries. His final eight produced 7.7 a game on fewer than seven carries. The efficiency held up well enough — the opportunity is what disappeared, as Detroit's offense consolidated around Gibbs and the passing game.

That distinction is the entire fantasy case. A back who lost effectiveness at 28 is a fade at any price. A back who lost snaps to a superstar teammate and still salvaged double-digit points a game most weeks is a different asset — especially one who scored eight times on 158 carries.

The receiving work is the honest weak spot: 24 catches for 192 yards, and no receiving touchdowns. Montgomery has never been a passing-down back, and PPR formats price that in. His value runs through carries and goal-line work or it does not exist.

Houston is buying a between-the-tackles identity

The Texans gave up real assets for a 28-year-old back, which tells you how they plan to use him. DeMeco Ryans returns as head coach with offensive coordinator Nick Caley in his second season, and the depth chart behind Montgomery is thin by design: rookie-contract backs Woody Marks and Jawhar Jordan, no established veteran to force a committee.

David Montgomery's depth chart

HOU at RB, using the league's published depth chart.

#	Player	2025 snap shareAverage share of offensive snaps in the games he played, 2025 regular season. Green = entrenched, amber = rotational, gray = fringe. Check GP: a backup can post a real share in mop-up games while barely playing all season.	GPGames he appeared in, 2025 regular season — the denominator behind the snap share	2025 finish2025 fantasy finish at the position (PPR)	2026 projModel One's projected 2026 rank at the position (PPR)	ADPAverage draft position in real drafts this week — whether the market is drafting him at all is its own threat signal
1	David Montgomery	37%Snap share is averaged over the games he actually played (17).Snap share earned with DET, not HOU.	17	RB27	RB25	58.2
2	Woody Marks	52%Snap share is averaged over the games he actually played (16).	16	RB31	RB43	142.7
3	Jawhar Jordan	30%Snap share is averaged over the games he actually played (4).	4	RB83	RB72	undrafted
4	British Brooks	7%Snap share is averaged over the games he actually played (8).	8	RB116	RB146	undrafted
6	Owen Wright	3%Snap share is averaged over the games he actually played (2).Snap share earned with TB, not HOU.	2	RB139	RB156	undrafted

Snap share and finish are 2025; projections and ADP are 2026 (Model One, PPR). "Undrafted" means no ADP in real drafts this week.

C.J. Stroud's passing volume shapes the ceiling. If Houston's offense keeps flowing through Stroud's arm, Montgomery's job is early downs and the red zone — a touchdown-dependent profile with a 200-point ceiling only if the scores cooperate. If the Texans genuinely rebalance toward the run behind their retooled line, 230-plus carries are available for the first time since his Chicago years.

The honest wrinkle: 28-year-old backs do not usually get better

Montgomery turns 29 during the 2026 season, and the history of backs changing teams at that age is not kind. Our projection of 143.8 points already assumes a healthy lead role; it declines to assume the yards-per-carry of his prime. If Houston's line opens the holes Detroit's did, he will beat our number. If the trade turns out to have bought the tail end of a career, the market's pick-58 price has no margin in it.

The counterargument is the one Houston made with its draft capital: Montgomery has stayed durable, he has scored at least eight touchdowns in each of the last four seasons, and the role he just inherited is the one thing 2025 never gave him.

The verdict

Take Montgomery at our number — the early sixth round — not at his ADP in the fifth. The gap is small but it is the whole bet: at 58 you are paying for a workhorse season the last twelve months argue against; at 63-65 you are paying for a goal-line-heavy RB2 with upside if the volume materializes. Backs with locked roles rarely fall, so he may never reach our price. Let that be someone else's reach.

See Montgomery's live projection and history on his player profile, or compare all backs on the complete 2026 board.