Eight places our 2026 football model disagrees with your draft room

Every pick in a draft is a trade against the room's consensus. Most of the time the room is roughly right — ADP is thousands of real drafters voting with real picks. Ball Ranks displays that market reference next to its own rank so the gaps are easy to see.

We pulled the largest disagreements between Model One and live PPR ADP inside the top 120. Two patterns fell out, and they're more interesting than any individual name.

Pattern one: the largest positive gaps are quarterbacks

Nearly every player Ball Ranks lists meaningfully ahead of ADP is a quarterback:

• Jalen Hurts (PHI) — model rank 58, drafted around pick 80. Projects roughly +43 points over a replacement QB, the kind of margin that quietly wins a weekly matchup.
• Caleb Williams (CHI) — model 66, room 89. A 23-pick difference worth examining.
• Jared Goff (DET) — model 74, room 100. The least exciting name on this list and one of the most reliable point streams in football.
• Patrick Mahomes (KC) — model 79, room 102. Another established quarterback with a large gap.
• Bo Nix (DEN) — model 91, room 113. A two-round difference after the QB run ends.
• Baker Mayfield (TB) — model 103, room 130. A top-eight QB season last year, available as a late-round afterthought.

To be clear about what this is not: it is not "draft a QB early." Replacement math is exactly why you wait. The finding is narrower and more useful — when this tier starts sliding past its model rank in the middle rounds, taking the discount costs you nothing at the scarce positions and banks real weekly points.

Pattern two: several unproven players go earlier in draft rooms

A visible pattern among players drafted far ahead of Ball Ranks is limited NFL production:

• Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) and Jadarian Price (SEA) — second-year backs being drafted in the top 100 on role speculation.
• Luther Burden III (CHI), Parker Washington (JAX), Carnell Tate (TEN), Keon Coleman (BUF) — receivers priced for a breakout that exists so far mostly in camp reports.
• Mike Evans (TB) — a different, sadder kind of disagreement: the two boards split on a 33-year-old receiver after eleven straight thousand-yard seasons. Someone will be right.
• Chris Godwin Jr. (TB) — coming back from injury with an age flag on top; this price asks for proof.

Some of these players will become genuine breakouts. If you believe a camp report, take the player; the board makes the price difference visible so you can decide whether the upside justifies it.

Check your own board

Every disagreement above is visible on the 2026 draft board — the ADP column sits next to the model's rank for all ~680 players, in all three scoring formats, and every player links to a full profile with his stat history and his team's actual depth chart. ADP moves as drafts happen, so check the live market reference before yours.